“Let it sink…”

Another reminder to stop comparing ourselves to others. The only applicable comparison is yourself now vs. yourself in the future. Not the past, because you might feel accomplished already, leaving nowhere to go but down. I prefer to compare myself to my future self.

Power moves

The other day, I had a constructive debate with an old buddy about the relationship between talent, luck, and hustling.

He was adamant that luck is not a thing. If you're smarter than average and persistence is your middle name, you're set for success no matter what.

My take was different.

A long time ago, I heard this intriguing thought: "A universe is meaningless where randomness is the most powerful force."

Randomness.

How is randomness related to luck?

A good one, so I Googled it.

"Randomness is the foundation of luck."

But wait!

There are plenty of super-smart people who worked hard to achieve incredible success: Elon Musk (various domains!), Oprah Winfrey, Jeff Bezos, Steve Jobs…

How do we explain that?

At first glance, the answer seems simple: their talent, multiplied by persistence, delivered the outcome we are witnessing.

However this observation reminded me of survivorship bias.

We only see those who made it.

The tip of the iceberg.

I’m convinced there’s a long list of smart, persistent workaholics who failed so many times - people we’ll never hear about.

Feel free to prove me wrong.

To explore this further, let’s look at real-life examples that reveal how luck intersects with talent and persistence.

Example 1: James Dyson

The inventor of the cyclonic vacuum cleaner, James Dyson, spent five years creating about 5,000 prototypes.

Smart? - Definitely.

Persistent? - Are you kidding me??

But here’s the thing: his experiments were supported by his wife’s salary.

What if he hadn’t had that support?

Luck (meeting the right partner) was key to his success.

Of course, history doesn’t tolerate “what-ifs,” so maybe this example doesn’t count.

Fair enough. Let’s try something more current.

Example 2: Elon Musk

Rich, successful, powerful, risky, and very… Is “controversial” a good enough word here?

Recently, Musk has shown himself in a rather "interesting" light - attacking, belittling, and provoking world leaders.

I’m not here to judge.

Just to entertain some thought experiments.

What Musk is doing, intentionally or not, is playing with his surface area of luck - changing opportunities through actions.

His actions have led some influential people to question whether Musk is a national security risk.

A valid concern.

This means that, at some point, he might face the risk of losing his business.

Would it be due to randomness?

Some might say yes (private property is sacred in the U.S.), while others could argue no (no one is above national security).

Now, let’s flip the situation and consider that he manages to get away without consequences.

Would that outcome then be considered randomness?

Again, we don’t know.

And since we cannot calculate the precise consequences of a particular outcome, we can only estimate the probability.

Probability measures the likelihood of an event occurring.

This is why we consider ourselves lucky if an unfavorable event does not happen to us (those who made it from the Titanic into a lifeboat are so lucky, right?).

That leads to second-order probabilities (e.g., you might end up in a non-overcrowded lifeboat that is safe).

Which, in turn, leads to third-order probabilities, and so on.

Each step introduces a chance of failure, and our luck lies in avoiding those failures along the way.

But how do we transfer it into business reality?

Every entrepreneur faces a number of constraints, primarily time and budget.

“You can do anything, but you cannot do everything”

That’s why every move is a bet. Which is a risk of time and money on the outcome of a future event.

A great example is the story of Tweetbot - a third-party Twitter app for iOS, iPadOS, and macOS.

It was incredibly popular and very successful.

Until one day, their developers posted this:

On January 12th, 2023, without warning, Elon Musk ordered his employees at Twitter to suspend access to 3rd party clients. We’ve invested over 10 years building Tweetbot for Twitter and it was shut down in a blink of an eye.

Who would have known…. Personally, I hate such outcomes.

Anyway, they were lucky to last 10 years. This unfortunate event could have happened much earlier in their journey, and we would have never even known about the app.

What’s in it for me?

I am glad I asked!

Through our actions or inactions, we change the probability of getting lucky.

For example, you won’t win the lottery if you don’t buy a ticket.

But buying a ticket doesn’t guarantee a win, even if:

• You’re super active and buy tickets for every draw.

• You’re super smart and calculate the probability of each number.

And yet, some people do win.

Their success stories are just winning lottery numbers. You can follow their example over and over, and still miss out.

My Key Takeaways

1. Keep “buying lottery tickets.” Keep trying, no matter what.

2. Don’t take failure personally. Sometimes it’s just bad luck. Don’t let it get under your skin. It’s not about you.

3. Quiet your inner critic. Even if you feel “not good enough,” keep going, it does not matter that much. Again, many times, it’s not about you.

You can never be sure when trying will lead to success, but doing nothing guarantees failure.

Till next time.

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Ice Baths: Ice baths are a core part of Mark's routine, and he sticks to it even while traveling. Fun fact: he uses ice baths as a way to wake up his body or recover from his first workout, which usually takes place around 3-5 a.m.

Workout Split: Mark is known for his incredible physique, so staying in shape for his next movie role is part of his job. His workout style is frequently adjusted based on his upcoming physique goals. His routines range from full-body weight training in the morning paired with an hour of pure cardio in the afternoon, to a mix of F45 training sessions and multi-day strength exercise splits.

Favorite Workout Machine: Mark loves starting his workouts on the VersaClimber, a challenging yet underrated machine. The VersaClimber provides a full-body workout, as the movement simulates rock climbing and gets blood flowing throughout the body.

Diet: Mark’s diet focuses heavily on meat, fish, eggs, fruits, and vegetables. While he does snack occasionally, it’s safe to assume there aren’t many cheat meals, given his consistently fit physique.

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